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Cheltenham Preview

Graham Cunningham spends half his week working for Racing UK, Betfair Radio and the Racing Post and the other half trying to outwit fellow exchange players from his office at home. He will spend the entire Festival week at Cheltenham while secretly worrying that he would be better off in front of his laptop. He will try to avoid overdoing the social side of things after racing. And he will almost certainly fail.

THE hype gets sillier every year. Yet if nothing else, the Cheltenham Festival is proof positive that man is essentially an optimistic creature. Why else would thousands seize on every morsel of info like starving wolves? And why else would hordes of junkies crowd into darkened halls to devour every word from panels of “faces” who seldom bet and offer little beyond the fact that their own horse “has done nothing wrong.”
Sorry to be cynical, but, after all the bombast of the build-up, most punters end Festival week much poorer than they started.
Fortunately, betting exchanges have levelled the playing field so those who put the graft in have an excellent chance of chiselling out a profit.
Get set for four days of elation, frustration, backs, lays, match bets and placepots. And let’s hope the following hints help you come out the other end in front as the bumpiest ride of the year looms large.

DAY ONE
REMEMBER this day last year? Detroit City was past the post in the Champion Hurdle according to some but bombed. Sizing Europe is this year’s budding superstar but his leisurely jumping makes him opposable in a race which can prove much more open than the market suggests.
Sublimity’s grip on the crown looks shaky after his Bula eclipse, but Harchibald, Katchit and Osana all look set to produce their best.
It’s hardly ground-breaking to nominate Harchibald as back to lay material, but those who are with him at 7 or bigger will surely be able to trade out at much shorter in running.
Osana received 4lb from Katchit when beating him in the Bula. That could prove a pivotal trial, though my main interest remains a lay of the jolly.
Noland plainly jumps well enough to win an Arkle. Whether he is a true two miler is another matter, but laying Grade 1 hurdlers who fence like he does is dangerous. I’m happy to leave him alone but, despite concerns about stable form, I will find it hard to resist backing the under-rated Tidal Bay win and place if this is his target.
Everyone wants to get off to a flyer in Festival week, but the Supreme Novices’ is a minefield. Captain Cee Bee and Sentry Duty top my short list, while Rippling Ring looks a possible win and place lay given that he didn’t beat a lot on his Doncaster hurdling debut.
Some feel the Cross-Country Chase is the time to hit the bar, but as a betting medium it always appeals. Having turned down 8-1 about Wonderkid after his flawless course win in December it goes against the grain to go in at much shorter. But look at the opposition. It isn’t strong and Wonderkid and last year’s impressive winner Heads On The Ground look a powerful duo against the field.

DAY TWO
IT seems clear the Champion Chase prices are much as they should be. In short, Master Minded and Twist Magic have both beaten Voy Por Ustedes, but the latter is now back on the track where he excels.
Stats fans will dismiss Master Minded on the basis that five-year-olds don’t win this. Then again, they didn’t win Newbury’s Game Spirit until he came along.
Twist Magic was turned over by Tamarinbleu in an Ascot gluepot, while Voy Por Ustedes never stops trying and has a 6lb pull with Master Minded now. It’s tightly knit, but Twist Magic’s fluent Tingle Creek defeat of VPU still stands out as the most striking two-mile performance of the season.
A repeat will make him tough to beat, while Fair Along has been the springer and his trailblazing style gives him clear back to lay potential if he gets loose on the lead.
Good luck in solving a wide-open Ballymore Hurdle. Aigle D’Or looks strong among the home team, while Forpadydeplasterer heads the Irish raiders, but keep an eye on two longshots and two lay options here.
Lightning Strike and Razor Royale are the two smooth travelling outsiders. Both have the pace to trade much shorter than their current odds in-running, while the quirky Group Captain and one-paced Trafford Lad appeal as win and place lays.
Denman stood out a mile for last year’s SunAlliance Chase. His full brother Silverburn lacks that star quality but his accurate jumping will stand him in good stead for this year’s renewal, while Albertas Run gave weight and a beating to Air Force One at Ascot and has the added plus of a course win under his belt.
Joe Lively is hard to fancy after his laboured Ascot effort, while Pomme Tiepy jumps beautifully but takes a steep class hike after bossing lesser rivals in deep ground.
However, the value option could be Oscar Park. A Pertemps Final win off 140 proved this gelding relishes Cheltenham. His chasing wins at Fakenham and Fontwell were gained in shallower waters, but he jumps with real zest and those who back him win and place at double figure odds can look forward to trading out at much shorter in both markets if he finds a smooth rhythm.

DAY THREE
THE Festival banker from Geordieland has shown traces of Northern Rock syndrome since Howard Johnson revealed some of his team are ailing. Inglis Drever has brought Ho-jo out of the doldrums more than once, but his claims to a third World Hurdle are no longer bomb-proof and his recent drift will continue once he hits his usual lazy spot.
Robert Thornton has been thinking hard about whether to partner 2006 winner My Way de Solzen or last year’s third Blazing Bailey. The former has lacked his old zip recently, but Blazing Bailey’s courage and consistency gives him the edge over Kasbah Bliss and company as the win and place value.
Withdrawals mean the Ryanair Chase won’t be as strong as expected. Last year’s runner-up Our Vic looks bound to be in the mix again, while Mossbank has thrived this winter but was blown away behind Denman on his sole previous Cheltenham run.
L’Antartique is a proven Cheltenham performer, but The Listener looks the win and place call if he runs here rather than in the Gold Cup. His form in Ireland’s top chases stands close inspection and if it rains in Festival week so much the better.

DAY FOUR
YOU don’t need to bet to savour the battle between Denman and Kauto Star. But do you really want to put your grandchildren on your knee in years to come and tell them you didn’t take a view in the most exciting chase for half a century?
Fate has a way of throwing a spanner in the works of great head-to-heads, and it shouldn’t be forgotten that Exotic Dancer is the second highest-rated horse in the field on official figures, but the 2008 Festival is being sold on a match between the Ali and Frazier of the jumping world.
Denman will come out swinging up front, while Kauto will dance around in midfield
until the final half mile. My vote goes to Denman, but he needs to be every bit as good as he has looked to subdue a champion who is at the peak of his powers.
The domination of the big two at the head of the market won’t dissuade Betfair from offering assorted other markets on the big one. Taking on former winner Kicking King in the place market looks low risk after his laboured Gowran effort, while Exotic Dancer will be hard to beat in the “without Kauto and Denman” market if his back problems really are in check.
Alan King’s Triumph Hurdle record is impeccable and Franchoek is a worthy favourite to improve it. I won’t be rushing to oppose him given that he jumps boldly and stays extremely well, while anyone tempted to lay Celestial Halo should note that the Nicholls camp are adamant that he is way better than he showed when turned over at Doncaster.
Stand by for floods of tears from the Channel 4 mob if aged scribe Lord Oaksey wins the Albert Bartlett with Carruthers and this bold galloper could trade short in-running given his freewheeling style.
By contrast, the ante-post favourite Gone To Lunch is a confirmed hold-up horse. His third in Inglis Drever’s Cleeve Hurdle here earned him a lofty official mark of 151 – and the rest are in trouble if he is really that good - but he tends to go in snatches and I suspect I will be looking to lay him as a result.

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