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The Timeform team preview 'The Festival' |
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With Betfair's recent acquisition of Timeform, we've called on the expertise of the Halifax-based editorial team to preview the week that can be recognised as simply as 'The Festival'.
How do you come up with your bets for Cheltenham? Some people follow systems to try and find winners. Others blindly follow trainers/jockeys, whilst there'll be plenty of Irish folk who stick to backing horses trained in the Emerald Isle at the Festival. Arguably the best way is to use ratings as a starting point, however, and that's where Timeform comes in, especially when there is so much information to sift through at the Festival meetings.
Six top-rated winners at the 2005 Festival and five at the meetings either side might not sound startling on the face of it, but when every race at the Festival is so competitive it's fairly easy to have a selection in every race and fail to hit the target. Then again, if you're a layer on Betfair that's the ideal scenario!
Noland got Timeform users off to a terrific start at the 2006 meeting by nailing Straw Bear close home to land the Supreme Novices' at odds of 6/1, though those odds paled into insignificance alongside the 1000 (999/1) which a few extremely shrewd Betfair users snaffled in-running. This year there'll be plenty who want Nicky Henderson's mare Amaretto Rose to become the first of the fairer sex since Like-A-Butterfly to land the opening race at Prestbury Park. She's looked really good in winning both starts over hurdles so far, at Ascot and Haydock, and her trainer has few peers when it comes to having his charges spot on for the middle of March. Henderson had three winners at the meeting last season, Greenhope, Fondmort and Non So, with Greenhope's 20/1 success in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase stirring strong emotions, the race dedicated to the memory of his father.
There will probably be tears shed amongst connections of Detroit City if he manages to break the Irish stranglehold on the Champion Hurdle later on Tuesday, the now-deceased Rooster Booster having been the last British-trained winner of the race in 2003. Not that Brave Inca (successful last year) and Hardy Eustace (winner in 2004 and 2005) will go down without a fight, the pair having already shown themselves as good as ever, whilst last year's runner-up Macs Joy certainly shouldn't be dismissed just because he was turned over by the Champion Chaser Newmill on desperate ground at Gowran last time out.
Newmill ran away with a substandard Queen Mother in 2006 after Kauto Star departed early, but with the 2004 Arkle winner Well Chief back in the picture it's likely a whole lot more will be required if he's to retain his crown. Certainly, those who chanced their arm on Well Chief in the ante-post market will have been excited about his recent comeback win at Newbury, the eight-year-old looking as good as ever in thrashing Ashley Brook.
The stayers take pride of place in the World Hurdle on Thursday and there's money to be made on Black Jack Ketchum. But will it be from backing or laying him? Jonjo O'Neill's eight-year-old was unbeaten in eight starts prior to coming unstuck on heavy ground in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January. Connections were quick to attribute his defeat to the underfoot conditions that day and, as the rain continues to fall and the going at Cheltenham threatens to remain testing, those who supported him down to odds-on will be hoping something other than the ground was to blame for him stopping alarmingly up the hill on that occasion.
Forty minutes before the World Hurdle is the Ryanair Chase, a race which has quickly established itself at the Festival and one which is the target for the enigmatic Our Vic. He was on one of his non-going days in the race last year, trailing home a tailed-off last of nine finishers, but has had a light campaign this time round and, for all Monet's Garden heads the ante-post list, his form as yet doesn't match up to that shown by Our Vic on his best behaviour. One thing's for sure, if he's not still on the bridle at the top of the hill he's unlikely to be winning.
And so to the big one on Friday, the Gold Cup. Kauto Star has rightly dominated the build-up, having shown himself arguably the best chaser since Desert Orchid with victories in the Betfair Chase, Tingle Creek, King George VI Chase and AON Chase this season. Certainly, on Timeform ratings he's right up there with the likes of Burrough Hill Lad and Master Oats, the best Gold Cup winners of recent times, and it's hard to see what's going to beat him if he puts in an error-free round of jumping. That's quite a big 'if' on recent evidence, howlers in the latter stages of both his wins at Kempton and Newbury taking the gloss off those efforts. Rather like Black Jack Ketchum, there are bound to be plenty willing to take him on come the day, and for those looking to back Kauto Star it could well pay dividends to wait until nearer the race in anticipation of longer odds.
As Jenny Pitman used to say, let's just hope that, after four days of intense racing and betting, punters and horses come back safe and sound!
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