NFL

The NFL kicked off this month and our in-house US Sports expert Chris Blackham explains why he doesn’t get a lot of sleep during winter.

If you are like me, the summer months meant counting down the days until the start of the NFL season. In this article I am going to review last season, preview the upcoming one and share a few helpful tips on NFL trading.

Last Season

Jerome Bettis aka ‘The Bus’ made his last stop in Detroit where he helped his team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Superbowl glory.

Other highlights from last year’s NFL include:

Steelers @ Colts – Post Season

The Steelers leading 21-18 with only seconds of the game remaining appeared certain victors when they got the ball to the Colts’ two-yard line. The result was in so little doubt that the Colts traded at 1000 on Betfair, until ‘The Bus’ uncharacteristically fumbled. This allowed Nick Harper to recover the ball for the Colts and return into an almost empty field. It’s occasions like this that that allow great sportsmen to prove their worth and up stepped the Steelers Quarterback 'Big' Ben Roethlisberger to make a last-ditch tackle, preventing the season-ending touchdown. The Colts still had a chance of taking the game to overtime but Mike Vanderjagt, the Colts' kicker, missed the vital 46 yard field goal attempt sending ‘The Bus' and his Steelers towards the Superbowl in Detroit.

Redskins @ Cowboys – Regular Season

The Cowboys were cruising 13-0 up with less than five minutes left in the 4th quarter (£25k matched at 1.01 and 1.02) when Redskins QB Mark Brunell threw two huge TD passes to Santana Moss leaving the Cowboys stunned 14-13 losers.

Shaun Alexander – Running Back for the Seahawks

Shaun entered the record books with 28 touchdowns in the regular season and ran for 1880 yards. It was truly a career year for Alexander who was named the league’s Most Valuable Player.

What can we expect from this year’s NFL?

If you live in the UK, you can expect the same sort of coverage as last year with Sky Sports showing two games on Sunday and Channel Five showing the Monday night game. When the baseball season ends Channel Five should televise the Sunday late night game.

I see this season being a very unpredictable one with any one of 20 teams having a realistic shot at the title. I can’t see anyone dominating the league like the Colts did during the 2005 regular season going 14 – 2. Consistent long-term success is rare in the NFL because of the draft and salary cap system. The Colts are the current favourites for the Superbowl title trading at around 7 on Betfair - with the rest trading at double figures - a clear indication of how open Betfair punters think the season will be.

How to learn the rules and better your NFL understanding

• Watch games and come to terms with rules and tactics bit-by-bit.
• Pay attention to the commentary - you’ll soon work out who the expert analyst is and who’s there to make the commentary interesting.
• Visit websites such as www.nfl.com for an all-round understanding of the game.
• Play NFL computer games and Fantasy Football. You’ll learn the value of formations and positions and develop a keen interest in certain players.

Betting on NFL

Outright Winner

Before New England’s dominance of 2003 – 2005 there were a few long-odds Super Bowl winners and this could well happen again. With the NFL always seeking parity via the draft and salary cap, an outsider could well be good value to win, leading to decent trading opportunities as the season goes on.

Points to look for when selecting your team(s):

• Strength of the Schedule – In the NFL teams don’t play every other side during the season, creating different schedules and some can be easier than others.
• Draft pick-ups – There are websites which review how teams performed during the draft.
• Trades during the off season or player retirements.
• Any coaching changes – A good coach can make a huge difference as Bill Belichick has proven. Also look at the records of offensive and defensive coaches.

Matchday Markets

Match Odds/Handicap markets – Team news can be very important. Last year when Michael Vick (Atlanta’s star quarterback) was unable to play against New England, the changes in the Match Odds and Handicap markets odds were huge. Remember in the handicap markets, the numbers three and seven are key numbers (points awarded for a field goal and touchdown respectively).

Total Match Points – The weather and ground conditions are key. Cold, windy weather is likely to see lower scoring affairs compared to a calm, sunny day. Please note, some games are played indoors so the outdoor weather conditions won't affect the game. The offensive tactics of each team need to be taken into account - how often they pass or run the ball.

InPlay Betting

This is my favourite part of NFL betting as the markets can be very volatile. The only issue is trying to stay awake at 4am on Monday night! Many factors can change the market within seconds - touchdowns, field goals, interceptions, fumbles etc...

A word of warning, watch out for the flags! Yellow flags are thrown by officials during the game where there has been possible foul play. A penalty may change the outcome of the play and this could have a huge impact on the final result. Bear in mind coaches are allowed to throw a limited number of red flags when they wish to challenge the last play. The officials will look at TV replays to determine the correct course of action.

Good luck this season with your selections and trading.