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We talk to StatsOnSport about their new partnership with Betfair
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Last month Betfair entered an exclusive partnership with StatsOnSport (SOS) to provide statistical analysis for anyone using the Betfair site. We'll be utilising this insightful information in many innovative ways in the future, but to give you a taster of what to expect, INPLAY spoke to SOS who explained how they reach their analysis and which trends they identify...
When many Betfair members back a horse - they consider a whole number of factors. Short and long-term form, quality of opposition, distance, going, the course, effect of the draw, form of the jockey and trainer etc...factors and trends that are pored over and analysed by a whole range of specialist publications, form guides and information services.
The same variables apply to other sports, but the quality of analysis lags light years behind the level of interest in these newer betting markets.
This mismatch became clear to us four years ago, in sports like soccer, golf, tennis, cricket - and emerging markets like rugby union and formula one. Focusing on sports with high levels of inherent form patterns, we knew that if we could combine enough scientific rigour, with a deep understanding of the key drivers of the sport, we could replicate the quality of research available to racing punters!
At the empirical level, first and foremost, we think it's about understanding form match-ups - in the short, medium and longer terms. Using for example the recent Man U v Arsenal match, what historically has occurred in relation to outcome, goals, scoring patterns, discipline and so forth when Man United's 2, 5 and 10 match home form is matched against Arsenal's 2, 5 and 10 match away form. We then compare this against all teams in this form - and look for the significant patterns. Over time, they will emerge - and can pay dividends.
Over and above this, it comes down to the depth of feel for the sport, trying to understand the reasons behind the numbers and the factors which influence outcomes. As we knew this couldn't be arbitrary, we hired experts to give further insight into the analysis - key authorities in each sport. Cricket's Simon Hughes, Formula One's Mark Hughes for example, people who could get us to the critical factors. Among the hundreds, here are a few examples of the types of considerations we needed to understand:
- The dynamics, aligned or opposed, between different player combinations (e.g. how well do Vaughan and Strauss bat together? Van Nistelrooy when Park is playing? Federer against left handers?)
- The patterns between performance in different events/tournaments (e.g. Accenture WGC and the Chrysler Classic, British and Monaco Grand Prix)
- How teams/individuals respond to adversity (e.g. soccer teams when behind, cricket teams conceding large totals, golfers out of contention)?
Of course, bettors do some of this intuitively. To turn intuition into analysis that can genuinely deliver long-term returns, takes systems. Sophisticated modelling systems, which can cope with the myriad variables - and generate the telling evidence. We developed a range of software search products, tailored to each of our sports, that provided the basis for our analysis. Systems that are powerful and quick enough not only to scrutinise issues coming into events - but also those that emerge as the events are in-play.
In conclusion, we think we've got something interesting to add to the market - and to help new markets grow. We're not here to tip - we'll leave that to others - we're here to identify form trends, give a point of view about how we think those trends will develop - and help betting decision-making, based on our evidence and recommendations. At the weekend, our evidence predicted Mickelson winning the Masters, United beating Arsenal, Liverpool to lead half time/full time 1-0 and Chelsea to lead at half-time/full time, with goals. So we must be doing something right.
StatsOnSport - a new information partner to Betfair. We produce over 800 analytical reports every year, on most of the major sporting events and competitions. If you would like to know more you can find us at www.statsonsport.com.
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