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LET'S PLAY BREEDERS' CUP ARBITRAGE When two or more markets exist for the same commodity you can make money with virtually no risk at all. All you have to do is buy the commodity at a low price in one market and then sell it at a higher price in another. This process is called arbitrage. And, thanks to those kind benevolent fellows the bookmakers, Betfair customers can indulge in the practice to their hearts' content in this year's Breeders' Cup. You see the bookmakers look on big future sporting events like the Breeders' Cup as great promotional opportunities. So they're happy to offer prices on the races well in advance. They accept the risk of exploitation by "shrewdies" taking any incorrect odds they might offer in return for the chance to promote their company. And the race meeting where they take the biggest risk of exposure is undoubtedly the Breeders' Cup. Their oddsmakers have shown year after year that they're unfamiliar with the American racing scene and invariably make several humungous bloopers with their prices. The purpose of this article is to point out a few of the biggest errors the bookies are currently making in their Breeders' Cup odds and show you how to spot new ones in the run up to the big meeting. The idea is to take some big prices about Breeders' Cup contenders from Messrs Hills, Ladbrokes, Corals and co now, and then lay them back at far shorter odds on the day of the big meeting on Betfair. For example, let's say you managed to get 100 pounds down at 12-1 with some hapless bookie on Better Talk Now in the Breeders' Cup Turf. The horse is almost sure to start at 5-1 or less on the big day, so let's say he does. Well you'd stand to make a profit of 1,200 pounds on your bet with the bookmaker, so you could lay the horse to lose the same amount on Betfair at 5-1. That means you could accept 240 pounds in wagers. In other words you'd lock in a profit of 140 pounds. Now of course, this isn't arbitrage as the purists would have it. It's more trading, as it does carry an element of risk. Better Talk Now could miss the race. But please allow me some creative license. Before you can enter the wonderful world of Breeders' Cup arbitrage you first need to know how to establish that a horse like Better Talk Now is massively over-priced at its current odds. This is not necessarily difficult. To figure out how American punters currently see the pecking order in any of the Breeders' Cup races, sign up to the Daily Racing Form website at http://www.drf.com (it's free). DRF gives you the latest form of the top horses in each major category under 'Watchmaker Watch', the biggest 'Beyer' speed ratings earned this year under 'Leaderboard' and much else besides. If you want to make things really simple I suggest you merely enter a horse's name in the 'News Archives' section of the drf.com and see how many times it's been mentioned recently. For example, in the last two months the most mentioned Breeders' Cup Turf candidates in Daily Racing Form have been;
* Following his recent win in the key prep, the Turf Classic, I'd bet on Shakespeare being mentioned even more often in the run up to the big meeting. Research I've done in the past shows that there is a strong correlation between the number of times a horse has recently been mentioned in the racing press and its big-race odds. This being the case, I'd predict with some confidence that Better Talk Now, Powerscourt and Shakespeare all start at less than 6-1 in this year's Breeders' Cup Turf. In fact, unless some real big name European horses like Hurricane Run, Bago, Azamour or Electrocutionist ship in for the race I'd expect Better Talk Now, Powerscourt and Shakespeare to be the first three in the betting. And that brings us neatly onto the second reason to get financially interested early in this year's Breeders' Cup. Namely I'm convinced we're going to see a whole lot less of the "big name" European horses at the meeting than most people expect. This means that American horses like Shakespeare and Better Talk Now will start at much shorter odds than many people currently anticipate. The reason I'm predicting a weak Euro turnout at this year's Breeders' Cup can be summed up in a single word: Money. This year, thanks to the decline of the US dollar, the increase in value of big races elsewhere and the Japanese plan to steadily open up all their big races to foreign runners, well the Breeders' Cup just doesn't look that attractive to a European racehorse owner any more. In fact, this year only one of the Breeders' Cup races (the Classic) ranks among the world's twenty most valuable races. And most of the races that top the Breeders' Cup events in prize money are run within a few weeks of the big US meeting. I'm betting that we'll soon be seeing worthy industry articles in the racing press bemoaning the failure of this year's Breeders' Cup meeting to attract strong enough foreign competition to warrant its new title of 'The World Thoroughbred Championships'. Hell, I'm planning on writing such an article myself! Meantime I say it's time to get your money down with the bookmakers on the American horses that are certain to run in the expectation that their top European rivals will stay away in droves. If you do you should be able to get some fancy prices from the bookies on the American runners and then lay them back at far shorter odds on Betfair the day of the big meeting. There is a counter argument to this. The Breeders' Cup is still an attractive proposition irrespective of prize money. A win in a Breeders' Cup race increases the value of any prospective stallion or broodmare immeasurably - and certainly more than winning a more valuable race in Singapore, Hong Kong or Japan. But I'd still like to bet that the turn out won't be as strong as previously. If you want my suggestions for the US runners most likely to shorten up dramatically in the Breeders' Cup betting due to the absence of strong European competition I'd suggest you focus on Better Talk Now and Shakespeare in the Turf, Megahertz in the Filly & Mare Turf and Artie Schiller in the Mile. But I'd urge you to consult the drf.com website, especially the news archives section, to figure out the very latest American opinions about their own Breeders' Cup chances. My fervent hope is that in future the bookies will start betting well in advance of other international meetings in Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and Dubai. Then we'll have another easy opportunity to steal their money each year by playing the arbitrage game on Betfair. It certainly is a fun game to play, and I've enjoyed talking about it over the past couple of months with several other fans of American racing via e-mails. A couple of months ago I was e-mailing several people back and forth concerning the certifiable 16-1 several UK bookies were offering about Shakespeare's chances in the Breeders' Cup Turf. The horse had just won in extraordinarily impressive style at Saratoga. Yet even after he'd gone on to lower Belmont's nine furlong course record next time William Hill still had him at 16-1 for a couple of days. Now that he's extended his unbeaten run to five races by taking the Grade 1 Turf Classic over the course and distance of the Breeders' Cup Turf we're all feeling rather smug. It was the same story with Leroisdesanimaux, another horse who won in brilliant style at Saratoga. Leroisdesanimaux had already earned the biggest Beyer speed figure awarded in a turf race all year when winning his previous six starts (which included two Grade 1 races). But somehow he was available at a mind-boggling 7-1 for the Breeders' Cup Mile following his Saratoga romp. He only dropped to his current lower odds after extending his win streak to eight in the Grade 1 Atto Mile. There's no way that British bookmakers would make such obvious errors in a local race as they did with the odds of Shakespeare and Leroisdesanimaux in the Breeders' Cup. So I'd urge you to start surfing to drf.com and start playing Breeders' Cup arbitrage. |
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