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A foregone conclusion?
Jack Houghton, resident betting fanatic finally puts his Politics degree to good use and takes a quirky look at your Election betting opportunities. Was reading the personal finance section of my Sunday rag. “But the Racing Post doesn’t have a personal finance section!” I hear you cry. Well, despite my girlfriend’s claims, my reading matter does extend beyond racing’s daily. What I learnt was that the best savings account currently on the market is offering 5.5% per annum for your hard earned. This got me thinking. The rest of the paper was full of articles talking about the inevitability of a Labour victory – something that you can currently back at around 1.12 on Betfair. So, if Labour can’t fail to win the General Election, why would I bother with a measly 5.5% a year, when I can make over 10% in around A MONTH? The question is for me largely academic – chiefly because I’ve spent too long chasing 1/10 “certainties” and not enough time saving my money and getting 5.5% a year. But nonetheless, the question is an interesting one. What exactly would Labour have to do to lose this election? Now, I should state at this point, loudly and clearly, that Betfair, under no circumstances, would ever suggest that people invest their life savings on a Labour victory. Readers should be aware that the value of their investments can go down as well as up and all that... The Conservatives require a 6.5% shift to prevent the government retaining an overall majority. Only twice in post-war history has there been such a shift – once when Atlee’s government swept to power on the back of a welfare state ticket and more recently when Blair overcame the “sleaze” infested incumbent Tories – and on both occasions there was a clear indication of the shift long before the election. What would have to occur in the next four weeks to create such a shift? Perhaps taking the country to war on a false pretence? The suicide of a government advisor? The resignation of a Home Secretary over a cash for passport scandal? Or maybe Labour’s only real danger is voter apathy and low turnout figures? The point is that little seems to effect the general perception that Labour will win come May. In fact, since the Betfair market for Most Seats launched in June 2003, there has been little that has happened beyond a continued shortening of their price – with them now being seen as having a 90% chance of winning from a low of just over 70%. And in recent times, the Betfair markets have proved a much better indicator of election results than any poll or politico. In the run-up to the most recent US and Australian elections, Betfair markets were showing a clear lead for both Bush and the Coalition, while most opinion polls were showing the races as being neck-and-neck. Recent work by some professors in America have shown that betting markets always used to be the clear indicator in elections. But if betting at 1.12 isn’t your thing, and you don’t think the Tories can pull off a miracle, then what are your options? One market that is sure to be popular is Voter Turnout. The last election saw a turnout of around 59% - something of a watershed as it fell below 70% for the first time. The Betfair markets point to a slight recovery in this figure, with a turnout of between 60-64% now being favourite. However, analysts have recently pointed towards the effect that devolution and a general disengagement of younger voters and ethnic minorities might have on turnout. And with the result of this election seemingly beyond doubt, will there really be an appetite to get out and vote? A strategy with this market may be to wait until the day and check the weather. Research on both sides of the Atlantic has shown that poor weather leads to poor voter turnout. A resource worth checking out if you’re interested in voter turnout, majority, or any other market is www.politicalbetting.com But frankly, voter turnout and the rest of them are all too complicated for me. I’m off to attempt to persuade the girlfriend to let me re-mortgage the house and punt it on Labour winning the most seats. “We’ll keep the red flag flying..!” Voter Turnout at UK General Elections:
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