Betfair Cheltenham - Nick Fox

Well known and respected Racing Post journalist Nick Fox shares with INPLAY some of his thoughts ahead of this year’s festival...

IF only racing always went as well as it did for me at Cheltenham two years ago. Royal Predica (33-1) in the Kim Muir and Young Spartacus (16-1) in the Mildmay of Fleet turned the also-ran into winner of the season’s naps table but I mention them – honest! - only because of what these two winners might teach us for Cheltenham ’05.

Cheltenham we know is not like any other meeting all year. And as such requires a slight tweak in normal betting tactics. Royal Predica and Young Spartacus help illustrate the best advice I can offer for the big meeting – think like a trainer.

Royal Predica was undoubtedly well treated on old form and was running after ten months off. But, trying to think like the trainer, I suspected that Martin Pipe had him back and the horse hadn’t run before for fear of spoiling the handicap mark.

Young Spartacus had also been off a long time, but put yourself in trainer Henry Daly’s shoes. You have a class horse very well weighted on old form. If you doubted he was as good as old you wouldn’t even think of Cheltenham.

Don’t suppose my advice is to look for horses well-in on old form coming back from an absence, just to think like the trainer. Appreciate just how badly they want Cheltenham winners. And when they have a horse who is good enough, you as a backer can count on it being primed.

Something else both horses had were good speed figures and a touch of class. Jockeys want to win at Cheltenham too and allied with good horses and big fields, don’t expect them to dawdle round like they do so often at the gaffe tracks.

The usual fast pace is something that in-play bettors will need to consider but the hill is not the stopper it sometimes looks. Last year 35% of those in the front two out went on to win.

If you don’t make your own, concentrate on the time figures from a respected service like the Post’s Topspeed. Some people don’t like speed figures over jumps but through the season the big problem is not the obstacles, it’s the number of races spoilt by lack of pace. At Cheltenham good speed figures work a treat.

It’s harder to give numbers to class but it’s an all-important factor. You could simply look at the BHB’s official grades. In the handicaps, be more appreciative of horses who have run well under low weights in good races than those who have figured prominently under big weights in lesser events.

A filter that encompasses both speed and class can be based on the Topspeed numbers. Without adjusting them for the say’s weight, log the best of each runners’ last four Topspeed numbers. Only consider horses within 10% of the second highest number in the race (second rather than top rating helps compensate for the possibility of one freak figure).

Ignoring the bumper, 15 of last year’s 19 winners passed this test and is an excellent starting point for some serious form study.

Topspeed Cheltenham filter: