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Kevin Pullein
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Racing Post journalist and committed football stats man, Kevin Pullein, has been writing about statistical football betting for over 10 years. Here he gives an insight into how you might approach your in-play football betting.
One of the less popular in-play betting markets is next goalscorer. Yet, curiously, it holds the key to most of the others, including the outright result.
I don't mean that the next goal, in most cases, will have a big impact on the final score, though obviously it will. I mean that the more accurately we can assess the chances of each team scoring the next goal, if there is one, the more accurately we can assess the chances of each team winning, drawing or losing the match.
Which is convenient, given that it is probably the easiest event to put a price on during a match when you have nothing more to go on than the intelligence of your own eyes.
I like to think that I am not a complete novice when it comes to evaluating the chances of different events occurring during a football match. Yet, I freely confess, I sometimes find it hard when I am watching a match to tell whether a team playing this well should have been 1.67 to win at kick-off or only 1.73.
I find it easier to judge whether they should have been 1.0-goal favourites in the spread supremacy market or 0.9.
What I find easiest to assess is this: if there is another goal, what are the chances of it being scored by team A and what are the chances of it being scored by team B?
In next goalscorer betting, I know, there are three possible outcomes -- team A, team B and neither. I want to focus here only on two -- team A and team B, and the balance between them.
If there is another goal, how likely is it to be scored by team A and how likely is it to be scored by team B? Are the chances split 50:50? No? 60:40? Not so much? 55:45?
You can home in, bit by bit, on a ratio that seems absolutely right.
You should remember that goals tend to be distributed more unevenly than goalscoring opportunities, which tend to be distributed more unevenly than possession. You are trying to establish the relative ability of each team to create and convert goalscoring opportunities. It involves a little bit more than estimating how much of the ball each of them will have.
The judgement is a purely subjective one, of course, which is why the only test of whether yours is better than anyone else's will come in the fullness of time when you tot up your in-play profits and losses.
Well, you might say, this is all very well, but how do we convert the chances of each team scoring the next goal into outright result odds? I have put together a small set of tables that hopefully will help.
STATE OF PLAY: SCORES LEVEL
Decimal odds of win/draw/loss if scores level at end of ...
| Percentage chance of scoring next goal, if there is one |
15 minutes |
30 minutes |
45 minutes |
60 minutes |
75 minutes |
| 20 |
12.31 |
5.53 |
1.35 |
11.40 |
4.53 |
1.45 |
10.77 |
3.50 |
1.61 |
10.87 |
2.59 |
1.92 |
13.44 |
1.74 |
2.84 |
| 30 |
6.36 |
4.01 |
1.68 |
6.30 |
3.47 |
1.81 |
6.42 |
2.86 |
2.02 |
7.00 |
2.24 |
2.43 |
9.33 |
1.63 |
3.60 |
| 40 |
4.02 |
3.42 |
2.18 |
4.15 |
3.04 |
2.33 |
4.43 |
2.57 |
2.59 |
5.07 |
2.08 |
3.10 |
7.08 |
1.57 |
4.54 |
| 50 |
2.89 |
3.24 |
2.89 |
3.05 |
2.90 |
3.05 |
3.36 |
2.47 |
3.36 |
3.96 |
2.02 |
3.96 |
5.71 |
1.54 |
5.71 |
| 60 |
2.18 |
3.42 |
4.02 |
2.33 |
3.04 |
4.15 |
2.59 |
2.57 |
4.43 |
3.10 |
2.08 |
5.07 |
4.54 |
1.57 |
7.08 |
| 70 |
1.68 |
4.01 |
6.36 |
1.81 |
3.47 |
6.30 |
2.02 |
2.86 |
6.42 |
2.43 |
2.24 |
7.00 |
3.60 |
1.63 |
9.33 |
| 80 |
1.35 |
5.53 |
12.31 |
1.45 |
4.53 |
11.40 |
1.61 |
3.50 |
10.77 |
1.92 |
2.59 |
10.87 |
2.84 |
1.74 |
13.44 |
STATE OF PLAY: LEADING BY ONE
Decimal odds of win/draw/loss if leading by one at end of ...
| Percentage chance of scoring next goal, if there is one |
15 minutes |
30 minutes |
45 minutes |
60 minutes |
75 minutes |
| 20 |
4.02 |
3.86 |
2.03 |
3.43 |
3.44 |
2.39 |
2.81 |
3.09 |
3.12 |
2.23 |
2.94 |
4.75 |
1.63 |
3.35 |
11.42 |
| 30 |
2.57 |
3.61 |
2.99 |
2.36 |
3.41 |
3.52 |
2.08 |
3.24 |
4.74 |
1.79 |
3.28 |
7.33 |
1.44 |
3.99 |
18.07 |
| 40 |
1.92 |
3.85 |
4.58 |
1.82 |
3.72 |
5.48 |
1.70 |
3.67 |
7.29 |
1.54 |
3.82 |
11.33 |
1.32 |
4.81 |
28.15 |
| 50 |
1.57 |
4.46 |
7.19 |
1.53 |
4.36 |
8.55 |
1.47 |
4.34 |
11.29 |
1.38 |
4.57 |
17.46 |
1.24 |
5.85 |
43.24 |
| 60 |
1.36 |
5.68 |
11.63 |
1.34 |
5.49 |
13.53 |
1.32 |
5.41 |
17.44 |
1.27 |
5.64 |
26.30 |
1.19 |
7.10 |
63.34 |
| 70 |
1.20 |
8.27 |
22.22 |
1.20 |
7.79 |
24.90 |
1.20 |
7.44 |
30.75 |
1.18 |
7.52 |
44.42 |
1.14 |
9.15 |
102.09 |
| 80 |
1.09 |
14.83 |
54.91 |
1.10 |
13.24 |
57.80 |
1.11 |
11.90 |
66.46 |
1.11 |
11.32 |
89.48 |
1.09 |
12.90 |
190.57 |
STATE OF PLAY: LEADING BY TWO
Decimal odds of win/draw/loss if leading by two at end of ...
| Percentage chance of scoring next goal, if there is one |
15 minutes |
30 minutes |
45 minutes |
60 minutes |
75 minutes |
| 20 |
2.04 |
4.20 |
3.70 |
1.77 |
4.30 |
4.93 |
1.51 |
4.78 |
7.80 |
1.29 |
6.21 |
15.82 |
1.10 |
12.74 |
66.52 |
| 30 |
1.54 |
5.05 |
6.62 |
1.42 |
5.45 |
9.03 |
1.29 |
6.44 |
14.70 |
1.17 |
8.88 |
30.73 |
1.06 |
19.42 |
133.98 |
| 40 |
1.30 |
6.76 |
12.29 |
1.24 |
7.50 |
16.92 |
1.17 |
9.13 |
27.85 |
1.10 |
13.01 |
58.97 |
1.04 |
29.46 |
261.27 |
| 50 |
1.17 |
9.67 |
23.32 |
1.14 |
10.84 |
32.06 |
1.10 |
13.37 |
52.71 |
1.06 |
19.30 |
111.68 |
1.03 |
44.39 |
495.88 |
| 60 |
1.10 |
14.72 |
44.44 |
1.08 |
16.34 |
59.91 |
1.06 |
19.91 |
96.32 |
1.04 |
28.35 |
199.47 |
1.02 |
64.20 |
863.20 |
| 70 |
1.05 |
26.57 |
103.78 |
1.04 |
28.69 |
135.03 |
1.04 |
33.87 |
208.47 |
1.02 |
46.75 |
414.53 |
1.01 |
102.19 |
1715.64 |
| 80 |
1.02 |
62.13 |
331.08 |
1.02 |
63.59 |
405.53 |
1.02 |
70.70 |
584.79 |
1.01 |
91.93 |
1086.81 |
1.01 |
188.40 |
4179.73 |
Explanatory notes: The calculations assume a typical match goals expectation. The decimal odds have been rounded to the nearest 0.01. All figures are the sole responsibility of Kevin Pullein, not Betfair.
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