Nick Mordin

Nick Mordin, author of Winning without Thinking, Betting for a Living and leading Weekender columnist, provides his unique insight into trading opportunities in this year’s Breeders’ Cup...

Back in 1997 I thought I had a brilliant longshot for the Breeders' Cup Turf. Her name was Borgia, an obscure German horse that few US punters had even heard of. I was fantasising about getting something like 50-1. But I couldn't stop myself from sharing the good news. So I wrote an article for the Daily Racing Form, the US equivalent of the Racing Post, loudly touting her chances. History records that Borgia lost narrowly at odds of less than 7-2. It seems every racing hack in America decided to quote my article and drive her odds down.

Yes indeed, the Breeders' Cup betting market is hyper-sensitive. The reason is that the American half of the market know little about the European runners, and the European half of the market knows little about the Americans. Therefore, when anything concrete emerges about one of the runners the market tends to over-react. In addition, the American and European bettors do not think the same way at all. They respond very differently to certain information. Clearly, this is a situation that a shrewd Betfair player can exploit. So I've prepared this little guide to show you how.

The first thing you need to know is that American bettors treat speed figures, particularly the Beyer speed figures published in Daily Racing Form, as gospel. If one horse has a bigger Beyer speed figure than another it invariably starts at a shorter price. Looking at the current Breeders' Cup odds available on Betfair it's clear that many US entrants with big Beyer speed figures are going to start at much shorter odds than they are now. Check out the biggest Beyer speed figures earned this year and you'll see what I mean.

The official 'morning line' is also a major influence on the odds. When it's published on the 27th of October I guarantee that British bookmakers will refer to it and adjust their odds accordingly. The odds on Betfair should follow. And you can get a jump start on it all by watching ntra.com and drf.com for the morning line to be published.

On the same day, I myself should exert an influence on the Breeders' Cup market. That's when the eight page Breeders' Cup form guide I write annually for the Racing Post Weekender is published. I always try to pinpoint any major bloopers in the available prices when I write the guide and know from experience that this is the one race meeting each year when I can shift the odds.

The drf.com website is also a great place to watch for breaking news that will impact the Breeders' Cup odds on Betfair. The same is true for paristurf.com which you can translate using Babel Fish. Important news affecting US and French runners appear on these sites before the Racing Post site which most bettors refer to.

Finally, if you want to get an idea of how American bettors are thinking right now, check out the Breeders' Cup 'future book' odds offered by one of the big Las Vegas bookies. You'll be surprised how different they are to the current Betfair prices.

Put all this together and you should be able to spot a few Borgias of your own - and do what I wish I could have done in 1997 - make some profitable Breeders' Cup trades when the odds move in your favour.

Do you agree with Nick’s views on the Breeders Cup? Why not log into the forum to discuss this article with other members of the Betfair community.